idea-013 · human · US

Stoma Outflow Valve

An external, patient self-inserted and self-removed one-way valve and; low-profile drainable cap, seated at the stoma orifice and mucocutaneous junction, for; use by adults with a mature (post-healing, uncomplicated), non-surgically-reconstructed; ileostomy, as an alternative to continuous-wear adhesive ostomy pouching systems for the; collection and periodic voluntary evacuation of ileostomy effluent in a home setting.

Back in research. The gate sent it there with 7 of 9 factors verified; nothing for you to decide yet. No department has been asked. 2 of 29 claims verified, 2 refuted. Nobody has yet written down what it rests on.

not wrappedunassessed status: queued-research updated 2026-09-29 Ask or request work ↗

The bet

In plain words

What this is, who it is for, and what it is coded to — in plain language, no rubric vocabulary. Someone who has never opened this repo should be able to read this and know what the product is.

In the Wrap's one-paragraph version, written for someone who has not opened the file. Domain: none linked

Who pays

No business case yet, so nothing here says who writes the cheque. /business-case idea-013 builds one.

What would kill it

What this idea rests on that is not yet known, in the order this idea's own decision queue puts it: worst if false first, cheapest to settle first inside that. The first row is open; open any other for what would settle it.

This idea is unassessed, so nobody has yet named the few things it rests on. Until then, the gaps below are the rubric factors that are unscored or carry an open question. /assess idea-013 replaces this list with the real one.

Regulatory pathway score 2

Why it scored what it did: Claims 1, 2, 10 — no cleared predicate for this exact device shape found; two Class I exempt analogs (876.5030, 876.5900) whose plain-language scope does not squarely match this device; De Novo (De Novo classification request) carried as most-likely route

What would settle it: Free eCFR/openFDA classification and 510(k) (premarket notification)/De Novo searches can narrow the pathway. An FDA (US Food and Drug Administration) pre-submission (Q-sub) would settle it for good, at the cost of consultant fees and a multi-month FDA queue.

Reimbursement pathway score 1

Why it scored what it did: claim 7unconfirmed — an established DMEPOS (durable medical equipment, prosthetics, orthotics and supplies) billing category (A4361 (a HCPCS code for a supply)–A4438) exists for conventional pouching-system components, but no HCPCS (Healthcare Common Procedure Coding System) code was found for a valve-based collection-interface device of this shape

What would settle it: A free CMS (Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services) HCPCS/DMEPOS lookup confirms no code exists yet. A coding consultant's opinion on miscellaneous-code (A9999) billing vs. a new-code petition costs consultant fees, plus months for CMS to rule on a petition.

TAM score 2

Why it scored what it did: Claims 5, 8 — 725k–1M Americans living with an ostomy (any type, not ileostomy-specific) and a ~$586.6M US market-research estimate (aggregator source, not primary data)

What would settle it: Free CMS DMEPOS claims-volume data for A4361–A4438 gives a volume floor. A primary ileostomy-specific epidemiological dataset (e.g. a licensed CMS claims study) would need a paid report to replace the current UOAA/aggregator figures.

FTO / IP score 2

Why it scored what it did: Claims 8, 9 — US Patent 11,395,757 B2 ("Continent ostomy valve and method of use") is live and recently issued, a named potential blocker whose claims scope was not read; adjacent sensor-patent art (claim 9unconfirmed) appears not to bear on this…

the rest of this reasoning valve mechanism

What would settle it: A PatentsView claims-scope/assignee/expiration read on US 11,395,757 B2, once an API key is provisioned (free once set up). A formal FTO (freedom to operate) opinion from patent counsel costs several thousand dollars and is the real settler.

Moat / defensibility no score

Why it scored what it did: No claim in this file addresses defensibility (manufacturing complexity, trade secret, switching cost, fast-follower barrier) — left blank rather than guessed

What would settle it: A manufacturing-complexity assessment of the valve+cap assembly, plus a check of how fast continent-ileostomy-catheter analogs got copied post-clearance — both consultant-time costs, not connector-checkable.

Mechanism & clinical risk score 2

Why it scored what it did: Claims 11, 13 — a 1980 published silastic-tube/balloon indwelling valve analog reported safe/well-tolerated in 14 patients (different design, small n, abstract-level only); no bench or animal evidence exists for this specific valve+cap…

the rest of this reasoning design, and no prototype exists

What would settle it: A full-text read of PMID (PubMed identifier) 7457715 (free, via PubMed). A bench prototype/testing plan is the real settler, costing contract-engineering time — a Stage 7 diligence item, not available yet.

Capital intensity & time-to-revenue score 2

Why it scored what it did: Claims 1, 2, 10, 13 (inferred) — regulatory pathway is genuinely unresolved between a Class I exempt analog and a De Novo route, and no bench/prototype work has begun, so cost and timeline are both open-ended pending which route applies

What would settle it: Outcome of an FDA pre-submission (Q-sub) to resolve pathway; a contract-engineering estimate for prototype/bench-validation cost and calendar time

Competitive intensity score 3

Why it scored what it did: Claims 3, 4 — two adjacent competitor products identified (Ampa Medical's InterPoc, an absorptive intraluminal device in pilot study, no FDA status found; Coloplast's Heylo, a leak-sensor accessory, UK/NHS-reimbursed only, no US status…

the rest of this reasoning found) — active adjacent space, no direct competitor for this exact valve+cap shape identified

What would settle it: A fresh openFDA 510(k)/De Novo search for any newly cleared stoma-valve device, plus a clinicaltrials.gov check on InterPoc's trial stage — both free, quick lookups.

Strategic fit & portfolio balance no score

Why it scored what it did: No claim addresses this — it depends on the operator's own portfolio composition, not a primary source this repo's claims can carry

What would settle it: An internal portfolio review classifying this as hero bet vs. cash-generative spoke against current holdings — not a connector-checkable item

What the departments said

Seven chairs, each answering from its own field. The verdict, and the first condition it set.

Not convened. No department has stated a position on this idea yet — a normal state, not a defect. /round-table idea-013 asks all seven.

What has been checked

The count

2/29
claims verified
2
refuted
7/9
factors scored
4/4
core factors
verifiedunconfirmedrefutednot yet checked

Only verified counts toward a score. A low count is usually a statement about the tooling — an absent data file, an unset key — rather than about the idea.

The claim ledger → · the nine factors ↓

What was found to be false

2 claim(s) the Verifier found to be false — a refuted claim is a finding, and the loop owes each one an answer.

  • claim 4A competitor, Coloplast, markets "Heylo," a leakage-notification system consisting of a sensor layer applied to the ostomy baseplate, a Bluetooth transmitter, and a companion smartphone app that alerts the user at early…the check →
  • claim 12No FDA-cleared or De Novo-granted device matching the description "indwelling ileostomy valve," "stoma valve prosthesis," or similar, intended for use with a standard (non-continent, non-surgically-reconstructed)…the check →

What to do next

The next move

<the single piece of evidence that would move this candidate most, what it would cost, and who would have to do it. Take it from the Scores table's "What would settle it" column — this is a selection from that gap analysis, not a new judgement. One sentence.>

Decisions on the table

Nothing is waiting on a decision. The next move above is work, not a choice.

Go deeper

All 29 claimsevery claim with its confidence tag and sourceStorythe whole thing as one narrativeDesirability deckwhat would have to be true — for the userViability deckwhat would have to be true — for the investorFeasibility deckwhat would have to be true — for engineeringSearch inside this ideaevery section of every file about it
Where it stands in the machine stage verified · not in the loop · unassessed — every stage this idea has been through, and what each holds
Running alongside every stage

Kill floors, applied to verified data only

  • [ ] Regulatory AND reimbursement both below floor (2/5)? → not evaluable: Regulatory verified at 1/5 (below floor), but Reimbursement carries no verified claim at all (blank) — the compound test has no second term to check.
  • [ ] TAM below floor (2/5)? → not evaluable: TAM carries no verified claim (blank), no Medicare procedure-volume floor was even run (blocked on missing local HCPCS cache).
  • [ ] FTO blocked? → not evaluable: zero patents were actually searched (PATENTSVIEW_API_KEY unset) — an absence of a search result is not freedom to operate, and this must not be read as "clear."
  • Result: queued-research — only 1/9 factors carry a verified claim (Regulatory, scored 1/5), below the 6/9 threshold required to gate at all. Per Stage 5 rule, a candidate this thin on evidence is routed to research, not killed — none of the three kill conditions above is even answerable on what's verified today, let alone triggered. Core factors verified: 1/4 (Regulatory only; Reimbursement, TAM, and FTO/IP are all blank) — this is a "we know almost nothing yet" queued-research, not a "we know the gate-relevant factors but not the rest" one. Diagnostic only; does not change the 6/9 rule.

Click any step to see what it holds for this idea. donecurrentloopinghuman only

The full packet the whole ## Wrap section, as written

The packet a human reads. See docs/wrap-spec.md. This section says nothing about whether the idea is good — it says the file is finished enough to be read, and names what to do next. Filling it in advances no candidate and approves nothing.

The one-paragraph version. What this is, who it is for, and what it is coded to — in plain language, no rubric vocabulary. Someone who has never opened this repo should be able to read this and know what the product is.

What would have to be true. One line per lens, quoted verbatim from that deck's load-bearing condition. Do not summarise or re-rank them.

  • Desirability: <quoted from the desirability deck>
  • Viability: <quoted from the viability deck>
  • Feasibility: <quoted from the feasibility deck>

Cheapest next test: <the single piece of evidence that would move this candidate most, what it would cost, and who would have to do it. Take it from the Scores table's "What would settle it" column — this is a selection from that gap analysis, not a new judgement. One sentence.>

Where the evidence actually stands. State the coverage plainly, including what is blocked on tooling rather than on a finding — a missing CMS cache file and an unset PATENTSVIEW_API_KEY are not evidence that a code or a patent does not exist. Run python3 engine/scripts/wrap_status.py --candidate idea-XXX for the numbers.

The nine factors why each scored what it did, and what would settle it
FactorScoreWhyWhat would settle it
Regulatory pathway2Claims 1, 2, 10 — no cleared predicate for this exact device shape found; two Class I exempt analogs (876.5030, 876.5900) whose plain-language scope does not squarely match this device; De Novo carried as most-likely routeFree eCFR/openFDA classification and 510(k)/De Novo searches can narrow the pathway. An FDA pre-submission (Q-sub) would settle it for good, at the cost of consultant fees and a multi-month FDA queue.
Reimbursement pathway1claim 7unconfirmed — an established DMEPOS billing category (A4361–A4438) exists for conventional pouching-system components, but no HCPCS code was found for a valve-based collection-interface device of this shapeA free CMS HCPCS/DMEPOS lookup confirms no code exists yet. A coding consultant's opinion on miscellaneous-code (A9999) billing vs. a new-code petition costs consultant fees, plus months for CMS to rule on a petition.
TAM2Claims 5, 8 — 725k–1M Americans living with an ostomy (any type, not ileostomy-specific) and a ~$586.6M US market-research estimate (aggregator source, not primary data)Free CMS DMEPOS claims-volume data for A4361–A4438 gives a volume floor. A primary ileostomy-specific epidemiological dataset (e.g. a licensed CMS claims study) would need a paid report to replace the current UOAA/aggregator figures.
FTO / IP2Claims 8, 9 — US Patent 11,395,757 B2 ("Continent ostomy valve and method of use") is live and recently issued, a named potential blocker whose claims scope was not read; adjacent sensor-patent art (claim 9unconfirmed) appears not to bear on this…
the rest of this reasoning valve mechanism
A PatentsView claims-scope/assignee/expiration read on US 11,395,757 B2, once an API key is provisioned (free once set up). A formal FTO opinion from patent counsel costs several thousand dollars and is the real settler.
Moat / defensibility—No claim in this file addresses defensibility (manufacturing complexity, trade secret, switching cost, fast-follower barrier) — left blank rather than guessedA manufacturing-complexity assessment of the valve+cap assembly, plus a check of how fast continent-ileostomy-catheter analogs got copied post-clearance — both consultant-time costs, not connector-checkable.
Mechanism & clinical risk2Claims 11, 13 — a 1980 published silastic-tube/balloon indwelling valve analog reported safe/well-tolerated in 14 patients (different design, small n, abstract-level only); no bench or animal evidence exists for this specific valve+cap…
the rest of this reasoning design, and no prototype exists
A full-text read of PMID 7457715 (free, via PubMed). A bench prototype/testing plan is the real settler, costing contract-engineering time — a Stage 7 diligence item, not available yet.
Capital intensity & time-to-revenue2Claims 1, 2, 10, 13 (inferred) — regulatory pathway is genuinely unresolved between a Class I exempt analog and a De Novo route, and no bench/prototype work has begun, so cost and timeline are both open-ended pending which route appliesOutcome of an FDA pre-submission (Q-sub) to resolve pathway; a contract-engineering estimate for prototype/bench-validation cost and calendar time
Competitive intensity3Claims 3, 4 — two adjacent competitor products identified (Ampa Medical's InterPoc, an absorptive intraluminal device in pilot study, no FDA status found; Coloplast's Heylo, a leak-sensor accessory, UK/NHS-reimbursed only, no US status…
the rest of this reasoning found) — active adjacent space, no direct competitor for this exact valve+cap shape identified
A fresh openFDA 510(k)/De Novo search for any newly cleared stoma-valve device, plus a clinicaltrials.gov check on InterPoc's trial stage — both free, quick lookups.
Strategic fit & portfolio balance—No claim addresses this — it depends on the operator's own portfolio composition, not a primary source this repo's claims can carryAn internal portfolio review classifying this as hero bet vs. cash-generative spoke against current holdings — not a connector-checkable item
Packet status 2 thing(s) missing

To finish this packet:

  • no domain linked in domains: — run /research
  • **Cheapest next test:** is still the unfilled _template.md placeholder — name the test, or the criterion checks nothing

Source file: knowledge-base/candidates/idea-013.md

Nothing on this page is a recommendation. Shortlist review, legal and clinical sign-off and capital allocation are human-only decisions, and no agent in this repo may make or simulate one. This is a compilation of what the candidate file says.

Words on this page12 abbreviation(s) and code(s), with what each stands for — copied from _shared/plain-language.md
510(k)
premarket notification — the FDA route for a device shown to be as safe and effective as one already on the market; months, no clinical trial as a rule
A####
a HCPCS code for a supply — one billing code for a supply or an accessory; the letter A and four digits
Class II
FDA device class II — moderate-risk devices, usually cleared by 510(k)
CMS
Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services — the US agency that runs Medicare, and so decides what Medicare pays for
De Novo
De Novo classification request — the FDA route for a new, lower-risk device with no comparable product to point at; longer than a 510(k), usually needs clinical data
DMEPOS
durable medical equipment, prosthetics, orthotics and supplies — the Medicare benefit and fee schedule that home equipment is paid under
FDA
US Food and Drug Administration — the US regulator that clears or approves a device before it can be sold
FTO
freedom to operate — whether a product can be sold without infringing someone else's live patent
HCPCS
Healthcare Common Procedure Coding System — the US billing codes for equipment, supplies and some services; a code is how a payer recognises what to pay for
IP
intellectual property — patents and the other rights that let a company stop others copying it
PMID
PubMed identifier — the public id of one published medical paper
TAM
total addressable market — how much money the whole market would be worth if every possible buyer bought